Outlook for M&A 2024: Experts predict upturn in fortunes after rocky 12 months

Mergers & Acquisitions Research Centre hosts annual expert panel to discuss trends in global deal-making.

First published Friday, 2 February, 2024

by Hamish Armstrong (PR and Communications Manager (Interim))

Cautious optimism was the overriding feeling among panellists at the 14^th annual Outlook for M&A discussion, hosted by the Mergers & Acquisitions Research Centre (MARC) at Bayes Business School.

Each year, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) experts, including members of the centre’s Advisory Board, provide insights and predictions to an audience of Bayes students and alumni, financial practitioners and the media.

After correctly forecasting a turbulent year in 2023 amid geo-political uncertainty, panellists presented a more positive picture for the next 12 months. One expert even said they foresaw deal volume increasing by up to 30-40% year-on-year, although not to the record levels seen in 2021 and 2022 following the pandemic.

Topics of discussion focussed on the demand for private equity and difficulties in the debt market, as well as the growing significance of artificial intelligence (AI) in the modelling of data. Regulatory intervention was also detailed, with growing global scrutiny of foreign direct investment and more active involvement from governments around energy security.

Following the discussion, panellists answered a range of questions from a packed-out audience that explored the changing structures of deals and private equity funds, the dynamics of deal-making in South East Asia, the impact of extended deal times and the effects of energy transition on the funding of Hinckley Point and other major construction projects.

Experts also provided students with their top tips for employability and careers in M&A and deal making.

Outlook for M&A panel experts

The event was introduced by Professor Scott Moeller, Director of MARC. Professor Moeller said the evening provided plenty of food for thought as the global economy enters a pivotal year.

“The annual Outlook event brings together expert practitioners and students of M&A, allowing an open discussion on the state of play and upcoming opportunities and challenges in global deal making," he said.

“As predicted by members of our panel this time last year, 2023 was a particularly difficult year for the market. Deal volume and value declined sharply throughout the year as global interest rates, inflation and regional political conflicts shook investment appetite.

“With more than 70 national elections due to take place in 2024, including in the UK and USA, government policy and regulation will be key to how the deal-making year unfolds. The feeling of the panel was that 2024 would see a small recovery for the M&A market compared to last year, but still not to the levels seen in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic.

“My thanks go to our wonderful panel for insights and analysis from the coalface of the market.”

Susan Kilsby, Advisory Board Chairman of MARC and panel moderator for the event, said:

“After a dramatic yet predictable slump for global M&A in 2023, there are signs of an upward trajectory in fortunes this year – although the road ahead is far from smooth.

“A lot will depend on the result of global elections this year, particularly those with uncertain outcomes. Government changes not only affect domestic regulation and foreign direct investment, but also have the potential to impact geo-political tensions and conflict in other parts of the world. It will be interesting to see how polling affects the urgency of deal completion prior to and after these major elections.

“The Mergers and Acquisitions Research Centre casts a keen eye on the dynamics of global deal movement to provide cutting-edge insights in the important field of M&A and private equity.”

Panellists for the event included: