Smoking ban not enough to achieve Government’s healthy life expectancy target, says study

While the recently announced smoking ban is significant, other public health measures are needed for the Government to achieve its target of increasing healthy life expectancy (HLE) by five years by 2035, according to a new study led by Bayes Business School (formerly Cass).

The paper, a version of which is due to be published in the Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, found that smoking remains a major cause of health inequalities in England. In particular, there is on average an 18-year difference in HLE between local authorities, and the number of years spent in ill-health tended to be greatest in areas with the highest mortality from smoking-related disease.

Levelling-up agenda

The aim of the study was to see if the Government could achieve its target to narrow the gap in HLE between the healthiest and unhealthiest areas in England and improve overall HLE by five years by 2035.

To do this, the authors assume that there were drastic controls on the sale and consumption of tobacco, similar to the plans announced this week by the Government to introduce a new law to create a ‘smoke-free generation’ for those born on and after 1 January 2009.

The key findings from the study are:

• Smoking reduces HLE and increases disability: smokers and ex-smokers can expect to live substantially fewer years in good health and without disability than non-smokers
• Never-smokers enjoy six more years of good health at age 20 than current or ex-smokers
• A complete ban on smoking would lead to a 2.5-year improvement in HLE, and also lengthen the working lives of both men and women by 2 or more years
• The authors conclude that while a complete tobacco ban is significant, other public health measures are needed for the full achievement of the target of five years by 2035

Cost of smoking

In a previous study by the lead author Professor Les Mayhew, Professor of Statistics at Bayes Business School and Associate Head of Global Research at the International Longevity Centre, it was also found that reducing the impact of smoking on the health of our nation could benefit the UK economy by at least £19bn a year and reduce the burden on and cost to the NHS and welfare system.

Professor Mayhew said:

“The Government’s announcement this week is welcome news. Far too many people die or are hospitalised due to smoking-related diseases – and ill people can’t work.

“Our research has shown that if nobody smoked the UK economy would receive a boost of at least £19 billion every year. This combined with the extra health care costs for smokers far outstrips any revenues clawed back in tobacco tax.

“The Government has set an ambitious target of increasing healthy life expectancy. We won’t achieve that without addressing the health conditions associated with smoking.

“Smoking is also more prevalent in deprived areas and as such reducing related diseases will play an important part in tackling health inequalities. Raising the smoking age further is a positive step forward, but to properly address health inequalities in the UK, the Government must take a far bolder and broader approach - from smoking to better housing across all parts of the UK.

“We note that New Zealand’s initiative will also be accompanied by a series of other measures to make smoking less affordable and accessible, including forcing tobacco products to be sold only through specialty shops, rather than corner shops and supermarkets.

“With differences of around 18 years in health expectancy between the healthiest and least healthy areas, the scope to level up is definitely there – the policies just need to be more ambitious in order to succeed.”

The other authors involved in the research were Professor Andrew Cairns (Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University and the Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences) and Dr Mei Sum Chan (Health Analytics, Lane Clark and Peacock LLP).