The once and future king

Bayes academics and honorary fellows consider the  wide-ranging implications of Donald Trump's restoration.

Pawel Bilinski, Professor of Accounting at Bayes Business School, said: “A second Donald Trump presidency creates the risk of tariffs and other protectionist measures that can negatively affect the profitability of UK companies focused on US exports. However, there is an expectation that spending on US infrastructure and defence could have a positive effect on UK aerospace and energy companies with significant US exposure. The US dollar would be expected to strengthen, which would benefit UK companies exporting to the US. So, some sectors may benefit while others would lose out on the changes in the White House.”

Simon Brocklebank-Fowler, Honorary Visiting Fellow at Bayes Business School and a consultant and investment adviser in defence technology, including to a range of governments, said: “Trump’s projected chaotic-ism will not help allies and will encourage our shared enemies to make more mischief in all our countries.

“As a business person involved in defence technology development, the comfort is that the US military-industrial complex, the security agencies, and others listen to allies and have some knowledge. They will prevent the actual work for freedom under US leadership coming off the road."

“On the US economy, the markets were always going to tame the public spending programmes of both candidates whether they liked it or not, perhaps Trump even more than Harris. The wonders of America’s productivity, growth and favourable demographics (by EU and China standards) will get it through.

“How blessed we are that in the UK a new Labour government achieved a landslide victory with 34% of the vote on a 60% turnout –reflecting the wishes of 20% of the voting population – without us turning a hair.  What trouble that tea incident in Boston has made for our cousins across the water. However, I believe that It will all be fine. Liberty is a pretty good idea. Which is why in most polls the US is the favourite country of most of the planet as a place in which to live, no more so than the citizens of our avowed enemies.”

Bruce Daisley, Twitter’s former EMEA Vice President of Twitter and Honorary Visiting Professor at Bayes Business School, said: "Elon Musk himself has certainly become a case study of how social media can inflame individuals and send them down a conspiracy blackhole - we've never seen the owner of a platform becoming so politicised in the content he has promoted.."

Laura Empson, Professor in the Management of Professional Services, recently wrote for Harvard Business Review alongside Professor Jennifer Howard-Grenville, Judge Business School, about how leaders can maintain organisational direction by managing through ‘liminal experiences’. She said:

“After months of doubt, the outcome of the US Election is now known.  However, questions about what a Trump presidency means for the United States and the rest of the world are just beginning. The world just became a little more uncertain, so what can leaders do about it?

"Many leaders we speak to describe feeling helpless and confused, uncertain what to do, but knowing they are expected to do something. Their organisations need them to provide clarity in liminal times. Liminal experiences involve a prolonged separation from normal ways of being and doing.  As a leader in liminal times, your role should be to provide colleagues with guardrails to hold onto as they build confidence in themselves and reassurance about the future."

“Rather than retreat into helplessness and cynicism, the Age of the Polycrisis can be a valuable opportunity for reflection and discovery.”

Bayes Business School Dean Professor Andre Spicer said: “Presidential elections increase political uncertainty which changes business strategy. This not only happens in the run up to the election, but also after the ballots have been cast as a new president builds a team and crafts new policies.

“During moments of heightened political uncertainty firms tend to hold off making big capital investments, take a more conservative approach to accounting, look for safe investment havens and avoid riskier strategies likes mergers and acquisition activity.

“However two aspects which tend to benefit from political uncertainty are innovation and corporate social responsibility. When political uncertainty goes up firms spending more on R&D and CSR. This means in the coming months firms are more likely to put off big capital spending as well as M&As but they are probably going to focus on innovation and CSR.”

Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow in Finance at Bayes Business School, Sabine Laurence, said: "The election presented distinct paths for markets and trade, with each candidate offering different policy approaches.

"While Kamala Harris was expected to maintain stability and continuity, Donald Trump's policies could introduce volatility and significant changes in trade dynamics. We should watch closely for the impact the result could have on policies driving societal, corporate and individual alignment on environmental change.

"Trump's pro-oil stance could lead to increased traditional energy production, potentially lowering global oil prices. His history of tightening immigration policies could negatively impact sectors reliant on skilled foreign workers."

Paul May, Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow at Bayes Business School and founder of  Concordia Consultancy Ltd, said: “NATO members are clearly going to have to increase contributions or risk reduced US support.”