Professor Sotiris Tsolacos

Professor of Real Estate

Bayes Business School,

Contact

Visit Sotiris Tsolacos

Room BR5087, Bunhill Row

Postal address

Bayes Business School
106 Bunhill Row
London
EC1Y 8TZ
United Kingdom

About

Overview

Professor Sotiris Tsolacos is the Programme Director for the MSc in Real Estate Investment. He joined Bayes Business School in 2017 as a Professor of Real Estate. Previously, he held a chair in Real Estate Finance at Henley Business School, Reading University. Prior to his academic appointments, he worked in the industry for fifteen years. He served as an Associate Director and National Director at JLL, London, where he led the company’s UK forecasting programme. He then became the Director of European Research at the U.S. headquartered company Property and Portfolio Research (part of the CoStar group since 2010) where he was responsible for delivering the company’s research and portfolio strategy services in Europe.

Professor Tsolacos has extensive experience in real estate investment, pricing, and risk analysis. As an academic, he has conducted research and consultancy projects for the industry, also advising private equity firms and family offices. During his time in the industry, he worked closely with investment managers, lenders, and private equity on real estate strategy and portfolio risk management.

His current research on real estate markets involves collaboration with both academics from Bayes and international institutions, as well as practitioners, focusing on forecasting real estate markets, fair values, and risk indicators. He has published over forty-five academic papers and contributed articles to industry magazines including IPE Real Estate and INREV’s IQ Magazine. He is a regular speaker at international academic and industry real estate conferences.

Professor Tsolacos is a past president of the European Real Estate Society and received the Society’s Achievement Award in 2009. He became a Homer Hoyt Fellow in 2011 in recognition of his contributions to the profession. He has been a long-standing judge for the prestigious IPE Real Global Estate Awards. He is the co-author of two textbooks, “Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting” and “Applied Quantitative Analysis for Real Estate.”

Qualifications

  • PhD in Economics, Reading University, UK
  • MA International Financial Management, Reading University, UK

Employment

  • Professor in Real Estate, Bayes Business School, Sep 2017 – present

Fellowships

  • Homer Hoyt Institute Fellow, Homer Hoyt Institute, 2011 – present

Memberships of professional organisations

  • Investment Property Forum
  • Society of Property Researchers

Award

  • European Real Estate Society (2009) The European Real Estate Society Achievement Award
    In recognition of a significant contribution to the leadership of ERES and a much wider contribution to raising the quality of real estate research in Europe.

Expertise

Primary topics

  • Real Estate Economics
  • Real Estate Finance

Additional topics

  • Investment Management
  • Risk Management

Industries

  • real estate

Geographic Areas

  • Global

Research

Research topics

Real Estate Forecasting

A range of statistical techniques is applied to forecast demand, rents, capital growth, and yields. These forecasts are compared with those generated by machine learning algorithms. The research includes a comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy of each forecasting method. The emphasis on combining different forecasting approaches enhances the appeal of this study. This research also contributes to the determination of fair values in real estate, with direct applications for cash flow analyses.

Real Estate Price Bubbles

In collaboration with members of the Centre for Econometric Analysis, this research monitors the potential buildup of price bubbles in commercial markets on a monthly basis. Several methodologies are employed to track the formation of price bubbles. The findings have direct implications for real estate investors, lenders, and regulators in assessing risks associated with property market crashes.

Early Warning Indicators

Focusing on market turning points—a topic of significant interest in the industry—this work identifies leading indicators that accurately predict real estate price direction and turning points in the real estate sector. These indicators incorporate sentiment and confidence data, as well as qualitative information.

Unlisted Real Estate Fund Performance

The research investigates whether specific characteristics of unlisted property funds—such as the level of leverage—impact fund performance. The analysis spans both periods of economic stability and economic downturns. This research is conducted in collaboration with industry professionals.

Sustainability and Real Estate

Impact of sustainability features and ratings on property prices. The work is carried out with industry professionals.

Publications

Books (2)

  1. Andrew, M. and Tsolacos, S. (2020). Applied Quantitative Analysis for Real Estate. Oxon: Routledge. ISBN 978-1-138-56133-5.
  2. Brooks, C. and Tsolacos, S. (2010). Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-87339-0.

Chapter

  1. Mitrakos, T., Vlachostergiou, V. and Tsolacos, S. (2013). The Greek REIT Industry: Current State and Its Post Crisis Evolution. Real Estate Investment Trusts in Europe (pp. 209–223). Springer Berlin Heidelberg. ISBN 978-3-642-36855-4.

Journal articles (50)

  1. Cincinelli, P., Tsolacos, S. and Urga, G. (2024). Price exuberance episodes in private real estate. Journal of Financial Stability, 74, pp. 101300–101300. doi:10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101300.

    [publisher’s website]

  2. Hilders, B., Marx, S. and Tsolacos, S. (2024). The effect of sector specialisation on unlisted real estate fund performance amid economic downturns. Journal of Asset Management. doi:10.1057/s41260-024-00373-0.

    [publisher’s website]

  3. Tsolacos, S., Lee, S. and Tse, H. (2023). ‘Space-as-a-service’: A premium to office rents? Journal of European Real Estate Research, 16(1), pp. 64–77. doi:10.1108/jerer-10-2021-0049.

    [publisher’s website]

  4. Tsolacos, S. and Lux, N. (2022). Modelling credit spreads on commercial mortgage loans. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 15(3), pp. 332–350. doi:10.1108/jerer-04-2021-0022.

    [publisher’s website]

  5. Lux, N. and Tsolacos, S. (2021). Loan Characteristics as Predictors of Default in Commercial Mortgage Portfolios. International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, (71), pp. 1–4. doi:10.32861/ijefr.71.1.4.

    [publisher’s website]

  6. Heinig, S., Nanda, A. and Tsolacos, S. (2020). Which Sentiment Indicators Matter? Evidence from the European Commercial Real Estate Market. Journal of Real Estate Research, 42(4), pp. 499–530. doi:10.1080/08965803.2020.1845562.

    [publisher’s website]

  7. Yin, C., Ward, C. and Tsolacos, S. (2018). Motivated monitoring: The importance of the institutional investment horizon. International Review of Financial Analysis, 60, pp. 197–212. doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2018.08.011.

    [publisher’s website]

  8. Kim, K.-.M., Kim, G. and Tsolacos, S. (2018). How does liquidity in the financial market affect the real estate market yields? Journal of Property Investment & Finance. doi:10.1108/JPIF-03-2018-0020.
  9. Tsolacos, S. (2014). A prolonged financial crisis: adjustments and prospects in Eurozone's southern markets. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 32(1), pp. 94–102. doi:10.1108/jpif-11-2013-0065.

    [publisher’s website]

  10. Tsolacos, S., Brooks, C. and Nneji, O. (2014). On the Predictive Content of Leading Indicators: The Case of U.S. Real Estate Markets. Journal of Real Estate Research, 36(4), pp. 541–573. doi:10.1080/10835547.2014.12091404.

    [publisher’s website]

  11. Tsolacos, S. (2012). The role of sentiment indicators for real estate market forecasting. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 5(2), pp. 109–120. doi:10.1108/17539261211250690.

    [publisher’s website]

  12. Tsolacos, S., Kim, K. and Peng, R. (2009). Panel modelling of retail yields in Asia‐Pacific cities. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 27(3), pp. 224–237. doi:10.1108/14635780910951948.

    [publisher’s website]

  13. Brooks, C. and Tsolacos, S. (2008). Integration of international office markets and signal extraction. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 14(4), pp. 351–361.
  14. Tsolacos, S. (2006). An assessment of property performance forecasts: consensus versus econometric. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 24(5), pp. 386–399. doi:10.1108/14635780610691896.

    [publisher’s website]

  15. Tsolacos, S., McGough, T. and Thompson, B. (2005). Affordability and performance in the industrial property market. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 23(4), pp. 311–328. doi:10.1108/14635780510602390.

    [publisher’s website]

  16. Almond, N. and Tsolacos, S. (2005). An Empirical Study of the UK Private Investor Market. Journal of Property Research, 22(2-3), pp. 97–114. doi:10.1080/09599910500453954.

    [publisher’s website]

  17. D’Arcy, É. and Tsolacos, S. (2005). The European Real Estate Society: ten years of constructive engagement. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 23(1). doi:10.1108/jpif.2005.11223aaa.001.

    [publisher’s website]

  18. Krystalogianni, A. and Tsolacos, S. (2004). Regime switching in yield structures and real estate investment. Journal of Property Research, 21(4), pp. 279–299. doi:10.1080/09599910500182108.

    [publisher’s website]

  19. Krystalogianni, A., Matysiak, G. and Tsolacos, S. (2004). Forecasting UK commercial real estate cycle phases with leading indicators: a probit approach. Applied Economics, 36(20), pp. 2347–2356.
  20. Matysiak, G. and Tsolacos, S. (2003). Identifying short‐term leading indicators for real estate rental performance. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 21(3), pp. 212–232. doi:10.1108/14635780310481658.

    [publisher’s website]

  21. Brooks, C. and Tsolacos, S. (2003). International evidence on the predictability of returns to securitized real estate assets: econometric models versus neural networks. Journal of Property Research, 20(2), pp. 133–155. doi:10.1080/0959991032000109517.

    [publisher’s website]

  22. Ball, M. and Tsolacos, S. (2002). UK commercial property forecasting: the devil is in the data. Journal of Property Research, 19(1), pp. 13–38. doi:10.1080/09599910110110699.

    [publisher’s website]

  23. Brooks, C. and Tsolacos, S. (2001). Linkages between property asset returns and interest rates: evidence for the UK. Applied Economics, 33(6), pp. 711–719. doi:10.1080/00036840122812.

    [publisher’s website]

  24. Thompson, B. and Tsolacos, S. (2001). Industrial Land Values — A Guide to Future Markets? Journal of Real Estate Research, 21(1/2), pp. 55–76.
  25. Brooks, C. and Tsolacos, S. (2001). Forecasting real estate returns using financial spreads. Journal of Property Research, 18(3), pp. 235–248. doi:10.1080/09599910110060037.

    [publisher’s website]

  26. Brooks, C., Katsaris, A., McGough, T. and Tsolacos, S. (2001). Testing for bubbles in indirect property price cycles. Journal of Property Research, 18(4), pp. 341–356. doi:10.1080/09599910110079640.

    [publisher’s website]

  27. Brooks, C., Tsolacos, S. and Lee, S. (2000). The cyclical relations between traded property stock prices and aggregate time‐series. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 18(6), pp. 540–564. doi:10.1108/14635780010357532.

    [publisher’s website]

  28. McGough, T., Tsolacos, S. and Olkkonen, O. (2000). The predictability of office property returns in Helsinki. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 18(6), pp. 565–585. doi:10.1108/14635780010357541.

    [publisher’s website]

  29. Brooks, C. and Tsolacos, S. (2000). Forecasting Models of Retail Rents. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 32(10), pp. 1825–1839. doi:10.1068/a3332.

    [publisher’s website]

  30. Brooks, C. and Tsolacos, S. (2000). Forecasting Models of Retail Rents. , 32(10), pp. 1825–1839.
  31. D'Arcy, E. and Tsolacos, S. (2000). Property research in Europe: moving forward through engagement. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 18(3). doi:10.1108/jpif.2000.11218caf.001.

    [publisher’s website]

  32. Brooks, C. and Cos, S.T. (2000). Does orthogonalization really purge equitybased property valuations of their general stock market influences? Applied Economics Letters, 7(5), pp. 305–309. doi:10.1080/135048500351447.

    [publisher’s website]

  33. Thompson, R. and Tsolacos, S. (2000). Projections in the Industrial Property Market using a Simultaneous Equation System. Journal of Real Estate Research, 19(2), pp. 165–188.
  34. Tsolacos, S. and McGough, T. (1999). Rational Expectations, Uncertainty and Cyclical Activity in the British Office Market. Urban Studies, 36(7), pp. 1137–1149. doi:10.1080/0042098993132.

    [publisher’s website]

  35. Tsolacos, S. (1999). Retail Building Cycles: Evidence from Great Britain. Journal of Real Estate Research, 18(1), pp. 197–218.
  36. Brooks, C. and Tsolacos, S. (1999). The impact of economic and financial factors on UK property performance. Journal of Property Research, 16(2), pp. 139–152. doi:10.1080/095999199368193.

    [publisher’s website]

  37. McGough, T. and Tsolacos, S. (1999). Interactions within the Office Market Cycle in Great Britain. Journal of Real Estate Research, 18(1), pp. 219–232.
  38. Thompson, B. and Tsolacos, S. (1999). Rent Adjustments and Forecasts in the Industrial Market. Journal of Real Estate Research, 17(2), pp. 151–168.
  39. D'Arcy, E., McGough, T. and Tsolacos, S. (1999). An econometric analysis and forecasts of the office rental cycle in the Dublin area. Journal of Property Research, 16(4), pp. 309–321. doi:10.1080/095999199368067.

    [publisher’s website]

  40. Tsolacos, S., Keogh, G. and McGough, T. (1998). Modelling Use, Investment, and Development in the British Office Market. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 30(8), pp. 1409–1427. doi:10.1068/a301409.

    [publisher’s website]

  41. Tsolacos, S., Keogh, G. and McGough, T. (1998). Modelling Use, Investment, and Development in the British Office Market. , 30(8), pp. 1409–1427.
  42. Tsolacos, S. (1998). Econometric modelling and forecasting of new retail development. Journal of Property Research, 15(4), pp. 265–283. doi:10.1080/095999198368293.

    [publisher’s website]

  43. McGough, A.J. and Tsolacos, S. (1997). The Stylised Facts of the UK Commercial Building Cycles. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 29(3), pp. 485–500. doi:10.1068/a290485.

    [publisher’s website]

  44. McGough, A.J. and Tsolacos, S. (1997). The stylised facts of the UK commercial building cycles. Environment and Planning A, 29(3), pp. 485–500.
  45. D'Arcy, E., McGough, T. and Tsolacos, S. (1997). National economic trends, market size and city growth effects on European office rents. Journal of Property Research, 14(4), pp. 297–308. doi:10.1080/095999197368546.

    [publisher’s website]

  46. Tsolacos, S. (1997). A case study of industrial property development in South Hampshire. Journal of Property Research, 14(3), pp. 211–236. doi:10.1080/095999197368618.

    [publisher’s website]

  47. Tsolacos, S. (1995). Industrial property development in the UK: A regional analysis of new orders. Journal of Property Research, 12(2), pp. 95–125. doi:10.1080/09599919508724135.

    [publisher’s website]

  48. Tsolacos, S. (1995). An Econometric Model of Retail Rents in the United Kingdom. Journal of Real Estate Research, 10(5), pp. 519–530.
  49. Latham, J. and Tsolacos, S. (1994). Book Reviews. The Service Industries Journal, 14(2), pp. 296–298. doi:10.1080/02642069400000034.

    [publisher’s website]

  50. Giussani, B. and Tsolacos, S. (1994). Investment in industrial buildings: Modelling the determinants of new orders. Journal of Property Research, 11(1), pp. 1–15. doi:10.1080/09599919408724098.

    [publisher’s website]

Scholarly editions (11)

  1. Tsolacos, S. and Kim, K.-.M. (2015). The Role of Liquidity In Forecasting Office Yields In Europe.
  2. Mitrakos, T., Akantziliotou, C., Vlachostergiou, V. and Tsolacos, S. (2014). Exploring the determinants of residential property values in a crisis: evidence from Greece.
  3. Tsolacos, S. and Brooks, C. (2013). Forecasting Turning Points in Real Estate Yields.
  4. Kavarnou, D., Nanda, A. and Tsolacos, S. (2013). A Hedonic Model of House Prices in the Greek Islands.
  5. Anderson, K., Brooks, C. and Tsolacos, S. (2011). Testing for periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in U.S. REITs.
  6. Tsolacos, S. (2010). PANEL ESTIMATES OF OFFICE RISK PREMIA IN EUROPE.
  7. Tsolacos, S. and Brooks, C. (2007). The Integration of European and US Real Estate Markets.
  8. Tsolacos, S. (2007). The Synchronisation of European Office Cycles.
  9. Krystalogianni *, A., Matysiak, G. and Tsolacos, S. (2004). Forecasting UK commercial real estate cycle phases with leading indicators: a probit approach.
  10. Krystalogianni, A., Matysiak, G.A. and Tsolacos, S. (2002). Tracking Property Performance Using Leading Indicators: A Prebit Approach.
  11. Heinig, S., Nanda, A. and Tsolacos, S. Which Sentiment Indicators Matter? An Analysis of the European Commercial Real Estate Market.

Professional activities

Editorial activity

  1. Journal of Property Investment and Finance
    Journal of European Real Estate Research
    Journal of Property Research
    Paper reviewer for other journals.    , Editorial Board Member.

Event/conference

  1. Regular presenter at international real estate conferences and events.

Other

  1. IPE Global Awards, Judge.