
Professor Roy Batchelor
Professor Emeritus in Political Economy and Economic Statistics
Contact
- +44 (0)20 7040 8733
- [email protected]
Postal address
106 Bunhill Row
London
EC1Y 8TZ
United Kingdom
About
Overview
Roy Batchelor is Professor Emeritus in Political Economy and Statistics in Bayes Business School (formerly Cass), City, University of London.
A graduate of Glasgow University, Roy worked as a government scientist and economist; then at the UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research, forecasting and analysing the UK economy, and writing on world trade and industrialisation; at a leading firm of London stockbrokers, where he tried to forecast the stock market; and at the London International Financial Futures Exchange where he ran training courses for traders and hedgers. He joined the newly established Department of Banking and International Finance at City University in 1977, and has since been active there in research, teaching and academic administration, this including spells as Head of Department, Director of the Bayes (formerly Cass) Executive MBA programme in Dubai, and of the Executive MBA in London.
Professor Batchelor’s research focuses on economic and financial market forecasting, the interpretation and use of consumer and business survey data, rationality and behavioural finance. He has published widely in these fields, including journals such as Management Science, the Review of Economic Studies, the Journal of Econometrics, and the Journal of Economic Psychology. And most frequently the International Journal of Forecasting, where he has acted as Associate Editor, and currently is an editor of its sister practitioner journal, Foresight. He is co-author, with Professor Pami Dua, of Financial Forecasting (Edward Elgar, 2004). In 2008 Professor Batchelor was elected Honorary Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, and he has since served as an elected Director of the IIF. He continues to be active in conference organisation, and networks of forecasters, across many applications ranging from sales and inventory control, through macroeconomics, climate science, demographics and epidemiology, to sabermetrics and beyond.
His research and business experience has been transferred into the classroom at City, where over the years he has taught many highly rated courses at MSc and MBA levels, covering Financial Markets, Technical Analysis and Trading, Business and Financial Forecasting, and, currently, the core Business in the Global Economy modules on the flagship Bayes MBA programmes.
In parallel with his academic work, Professor Batchelor has been active in professional training and consultancy, conducting seminars on technical innovations in economics and finance for professional audiences in London, New York, Paris, Tokyo, Shanghai, Dubai, Mumbai, and other international financial centres. He has held visiting appointments at the Delhi School of Economics, Purdue University, the University of Connecticut, the Stockholm School of Economics, ESCP Paris, and is a Fellow and Research Professor at the ifo Institute in Munich.
Professor Batchelor has acted as economic adviser to stockbrokers Smith New Court, LIFFE, the World Gold Council, leading market research company Canadean, and undertaken consultancy projects for many other commercial organisations. He has given expert legal evidence in cases relating to the quality of financial forecasting and trading systems; conducted research for Chatham House, the European Commission, and the UK Treasury; prepared invited submissions for Parliamentary Committees; and served on the Bank of England's Panel of Academic Consultants.
Qualifications
MA (Glasgow).
Expertise
Primary topics
- Econometric & Statistical Methods
- Economics
- Financial Econometrics
- Financial Economics
- Financial Markets
- Macroeconomics
- Quantitative Finance
Industries
- banking
- consumer goods
- gambling
Geographic Areas
- Africa
- Americas - North
- Europe
- Middle East
Publications
Book
- Batchelor, R.A. and Dua, P. (2003). Financial Forecasting. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. ISBN 978-1-84064-034-2.
Chapters (7)
- In Satchell, S. (Ed.), (2016). Derivatives and Hedge Funds. In Palgrave Macmillan UK. ISBN 978-1-349-55828-5.
- Batchelor, R.A. (2010). How robust are quantified survey data? Evidence from the United States. In Peter Sinclair, (Ed.), Inflation Expectations Oxford and New York: Routledge. ISBN 0-415-56174-4.
- Batchelor, R.A. and Albanis, G.A. (2001). 21 nonlinear ways to beat the stock market. In Dunis, C., Timmerman, A. and Moody, J. (Eds.), Developments in Forecast Combination and Portfolio Choice (pp. 81–110). Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-52165-5.
- Batchelor, R.A. and Albanis, G.A. (2001). Predicting high performance stocks using dimensionality reduction techniques based on neural networks. In Dunis, C., Timmerman, A. and Moody, J. (Eds.), Developments in Forecast Combination and Portfolio Choice (pp. 117–134). Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-52165-5.
- Albanis, G.T. and Batchelor, R.A. (2000). Five classification algorithms to predict high performance stocks. (pp. 295–317). ISBN 0-7923-7778-8.
- Batchelor, R.A. and Zarkesh, F. (2000). Variance rationality: a direct test. In Gardes, F. and Prat, G. (Eds.), Expectations in Goods and Financial Markets (pp. 156–171). London and New York: Edward Elgar.
- Batchelor, R.A. (1998). Confidence and the macroeconomy: a Markov switching model. In Poser, G. and Oppenlander, H. (Eds.), Social and Structural Change - Consequences for Business Cycle: Selected Papers Presented at the 23rd Ciret Conference, Helsinki (Ciret Conference Proceedings Aldershot: Ashgate. ISBN 978-1-84014-536-6.
Conference papers and proceedings (15)
- Batchelor, R. (2009). Contagion and common shocks in survey expectations. International Symposium on Forecasting Hong Kong.
- Batchelor, R. (2008). Forecast dispersion as a measure of risk: applying the Kelly rule to options on T-bill futures. International Symposium on Forecasting Nice, France.
- Batchelor, R. (2007). Forecaster Diversity and Forecast Performance. International Symposium on Forecasting New York.
- Batchelor, R. (2006). The Behaviour of Economic Forecasters. CESifo Seminar 13 December, Munich, Germany.
- Batchelor, R. (2006). How Robust are Quantified Survey Data? Evidence from the United States. NBP Workshop 2006: The role of inflation expectations in modelling and monetary policy making 9-10 February, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw, Poland.
- Batchelor, R. (2006). Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts. International Symposium on Forecasting Santander, Spain.
- Batchelor, R. (2005). Magic Numbers in the Dow. International Symposium on Forecasting San Antonio, USA.
- Batchelor, R. (2005). When Good Forecasts go Bad. International Symposium on Forecasting San Antonio, USA.
- Batchelor, R. (2005). Behavioural Finance and Technical Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Market. Technical Analyst Conference London.
- Batchelor, R. (2005). Errors in Forecasts for the European Economy: Rational Bias v. Learning. The State of Macroeconomic Forecasting Leipzig, Germany.
- Batchelor, R. (2004). Judgmental Bootstrapping of Technical Traders. Forecasting Financial Markets ESCP Paris.
- Kavussanos, M.G., Visvikis, I.D. and Batchelor, R.A. (2004). Over-the-counter forward contracts and spot price volatility in shipping. doi:10.1016/j.tre.2003.08.007
- Kwan, S. and Batchelor, R. (2003). Why are profitable traders profitable? International Symposium on Forecasting Merida, Mexico.
- Alizadeh, A., Visvikis, I. and Batchelor, R. (2003). Forecasting performance of spot and forward prices in the freight market. International Symposium on Forecasting Merida, Mexico.
- Kwan, S. and Batchelor, R. (2002). The evaluation of technical forecasts: synthetic versus actual trading rules. International Symposium on Forecasting Dublin.
Journal articles (50)
- Batchelor, R.A. (2017). Earnings Forecasts: The Bias is Back. Foresight: the international journal of applied forecasting, 26, pp. 5–9.
- Batchelor, R.A. (2015). Financial Crises and Forecasting Failures. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, (36 (Winter 2015)), pp. 28–31.
- Batchelor, R.A. (2013). Is Success a Result of Skill or Luck?
Book review: The Success Equation – Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing by Michael J. Mauboussin. Foresight: the international journal of applied forecasting, (30 (Summer 2013)). - Batchelor, R.A. (2012). Good Patterns, Bad Patterns. Foresight: the international journal of applied forecasting, (25 (Spring 2012)), pp. 26–26.
- Batchelor, R.A. (2011). Accuracy versus Profitability. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, (21 (Spring Issue)), pp. 10–15.
- Batchelor, R. (2010). Worst-Case Scenarios in Forecasting: How Bad Can Things Get? Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 18, pp. 27–32.
- Batchelor, R. and Dua, P. (2009). SURVEY vs ARCH MEASURES OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY*. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 55(3), pp. 341–353. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0084.1993.mp55003005.x.
- Batchelor, R. (2009). Forecasting Sharp Changes. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, (13 (Spring 2009)), pp. 7–7.
- Batchelor, R. (2009). Why Do We Need Complexification? A Commentary on Rethinking the Ways We Forecast. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 14 (Summer 2009), pp. 31–34.
- Batchelor, R. and Kwan, T.Y. (2007). Judgemental bootstrapping of technical traders in the bond market. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3), pp. 427–445. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.05.007.
- Albanis, G. and Batchelor, R. (2007). Combining heterogeneous classifiers for stock selection. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, 15(1-2), pp. 1–21. doi:10.1002/isaf.282.
- Batchelor, R.A. (2007). Bias in macroeconomic forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 23-Jan, pp. 189–203.
- Batchelor, R., Alizadeh, A. and Visvikis, I. (2007). Forecasting spot and forward prices in the international freight market. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(1), pp. 101–114. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.07.004.
- Batchelor, R. and Manzoni, K. (2006). THE DYNAMICS OF BOND YIELD SPREADS AROUND RATING REVISION DATES. Journal of Financial Research, 29(3), pp. 405–420. doi:10.1111/j.1475-6803.2006.00186.x.
- Batchelor, R.A., Alizadeh, A.H. and Visvikis, I.D. (2005). The relation between bid–ask spreads and price volatility in forward markets. Derivatives Use, Trading & Regulation, 11(2), pp. 105–125. doi:10.1057/palgrave.dutr.1840012.
- Batchelor, R.A. (2005). A primer on forecasting with neural networks,. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, (2 (Fall 2005)), pp. 37–43.
- Batchelor, R., Alizadeh, A. and Visvikis, I. (2005). The Relation between Bid-Ask Spreads and Price Volatility in Forward Markets. Journal of Derivatives and Hedge Funds (formerly Derivatives Use, Trading and Regulation), 11, pp. 105–125.
- Batchelor, R. (2004). The pros and cons of technical analysis: an academic perspective. The Technical Analyst, 1(1), pp. 13–17.
- Batchelor, R. and Orakcioglu, I. (2003). Event-related GARCH: the impact of stock dividends in Turkey. Applied Financial Economics, 13(4), pp. 295–307. doi:10.1080/09603100210138547.
- Batchelor, R.A. (2001). Confidence indexes and the probability of recession: a Markov switching model. Indian Economic Review, Special Issue on Analysis of Business Cycles(Special Issue on Analysis of Business Cycles), pp. 107–124.
- Batchelor, R.A. (2001). How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus. Applied Economics, 33(2), pp. 225–235. doi:10.1080/00036840121785.
- Batchelor, R. and Peel, D.A. (1998). Rationality testing under asymmetric loss. Economics Letters, 61(1), pp. 49–54. doi:10.1016/s0165-1765(98)00157-8.
- Batchelor, R.A. and Dua, P. (1998). Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence. International Journal of Forecasting, 14(1), pp. 71–81.
- Batchelor, R. and Dua, P. (1996). Empirical measures of inflation uncertainty: a cautionary note. Applied Economics, 28(3), pp. 333–341. doi:10.1080/000368496328704.
- Batchelor, R. (1995). On the importance of the term premium in the T-bill market. Applied Financial Economics, 5(4), pp. 235–242. doi:10.1080/758536873.
- Batchelor, R. and Gulley, D. (1995). Jewellery demand and the price of gold. Resources Policy, 21(1), pp. 37–42. doi:10.1016/0301-4207(95)92250-u.
- Batchelor, R. and Dua, P. (1995). Forecaster Diversity and the Benefits of Combining Forecasts. Management Science, 41(1), pp. 68–75. doi:10.1287/mnsc.41.1.68.
- Batchelor, R.A. (1995). The Case for Divisia Money. Review of Policy Issues, 1(5), pp. 57–66.
- Batchelor, R. and Dua, P. (1992). Conservatism and consensus-seeking among economic forecasters. Journal of Forecasting, 11(2), pp. 169–181. doi:10.1002/for.3980110207.
- Batchelor, R.A. and Dua, P. (1992). Survey Expectations in the Times Series Consumption Function. Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), pp. 598–606.
- Batchelor, R. and Orr, A. (1991). Inflation uncertainty, inflationary shocks and the credibility of counterinflation policy. European Economic Review, 35(7), pp. 1385–1397. doi:10.1016/0014-2921(91)90025-e.
- Batchelor, R.A. and Dua, P. (1991). Blue Chip Rationality Tests. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23(4), pp. 692–705.
- BATCHELOR, R.A. (1990). ALL FORECASTERS ARE EQUAL. JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS, 8(1), pp. 143–144.
- BATCHELOR, R.A. and DUA, P. (1990). PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION IN THE ECONOMIC-FORECASTING INDUSTRY. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 6(3), pp. 311–316. doi:10.1016/0169-2070(90)90058-J.
- Bathcelor, R. and Dua, P. (1990). Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 6(1), pp. 3–10. doi:10.1016/0169-2070(90)90093-q.
- BATCHELOR, R.A. and DUA, P. (1989). HOUSEHOLD VERSUS ECONOMIST FORECASTS OF INFLATION - A REASSESSMENT. JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING, 21(2), pp. 252–257. doi:10.2307/1992374.
- BATCHELOR, R.A. and ORR, A.B. (1988). INFLATION-EXPECTATIONS REVISITED. ECONOMICA, 55(219), pp. 317–331. doi:10.2307/2554010.
- BATCHELOR, R.A. and DUA, P. (1987). THE ACCURACY AND RATIONALITY OF UK INFLATION-EXPECTATIONS - SOME QUANTITATIVE EVIDENCE. APPLIED ECONOMICS, 19(6), pp. 819–828. doi:10.1080/00036848700000112.
- BATCHELOR, R.A. (1986). THE PSYCHOPHYSICS OF INFLATION. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PSYCHOLOGY, 7(3), pp. 269–290. doi:10.1016/0167-4870(86)90021-8.
- BATCHELOR, R.A. (1986). QUANTITATIVE V QUALITATIVE MEASURES OF INFLATION-EXPECTATIONS. OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, 48(2), pp. 99–120.
- Batchelor, R.A. (1983). British economic policy under margaret thatcher: A mid term examination A comment on darby and lothian. , 18(1), pp. 209–219.
- Batchelor, R.A. (1982). Money and monetary policy in interdependent nations : R.C. Bryant, (Brookings Institution, 1980) pp. xxii + 584, $29.95 (cloth), $12.95 (paper). , 13(3-4), pp. 395–396.
- BATCHELOR, R.A. (1982). EXPECTATIONS, OUTPUT AND INFLATION - THE EUROPEAN-EXPERIENCE. EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, 17(1), pp. 1–25. doi:10.1016/0014-2921(82)90039-3.
- BATCHELOR, R.A. (1982). MONEY AND MONETARY-POLICY IN INTERDEPENDENT NATIONS - BRYANT,RC. JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, 13(3-4), pp. 395–396. doi:10.1016/0022-1996(82)90068-X.
- BATCHELOR, R.A. (1981). AGGREGATE EXPECTATIONS UNDER THE STABLE LAWS. JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS, 16(2), pp. 199–210. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(81)90107-X.
- BATCHELOR, R.A. and SHERIFF, T.D. (1980). UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNANTICIPATED INFLATION IN POST-WAR BRITAIN. ECONOMICA, 47(186), pp. 179–192. doi:10.2307/2553235.
- Batchelor, R.A. (1977). Sterling Exchange Rates 1951—1976: a Casselian Analysis. National Institute Economic Review, 81, pp. 45–66. doi:10.1177/002795017708100105.
- Batchelor, R.A. (1977). A Variable-Parameter Model of Exporting Behaviour. Review of Economic Studies, 44(1), pp. 43–57.
- Batchelor, R.A. (1975). Household Technology and the Domestic Demand for Water. Land Economics, 51(3), pp. 208–208. doi:10.2307/3145086.
- Batchelor, R.A. and Bowe, C. (1974). Forecasting UK international trade: A general equilibrium approach. Applied Economics, 6(2), pp. 109–141. doi:10.1080/00036847400000003.
Report
- Batchelor, R.A. and Ramyar, R. (2006). Magic numbers in the Dow. London: Cass Business School.