Research

Regular Reports

Monthly Market Monitor

Market Monitor - December 2021

Market Monitor - November 2021

Market Monitor - October 2021

Market Monitor - September 2021

Market Monitor - August 2021

The purpose of the Monthly CRE Monitor is to provide some fresh insight into how both debt and capital markets are valuing financial instruments with real estate backing. The key methodology is based on both prior academic literature and Bayes internal expert market experience for both leading indicators and signals as well as comparative valuations which are not available elsewhere.

The analysis is based on Bayes database of over 350 listed European real estate companies, and 180 bond European real estate bond issues. Pricing data has been sourced from Bloomberg and Reuters.

To accompany the first Monthly Monitor we have also published a Methodology Document which explains the rationale and calculations behind the metrics

Please complete this form if you wish to receive the monthly Market Monitor

Debt Market Research

Debt Monitor December 2021

Debt market spreadsheet December 2021

Lending Survey

The market leading Bayes Commercial Real Estate lending report produced by Dr Nicole Lux was published in October 2021 , covering the period to June 2021. The report indicates a steady yet evident recovery of the lending market during the first half of 2021. New lending volume for the first half of 2021 reached £23.3 billion – more than at the same point in 2019. This is also helped by a backlog of transactions stuck in the pipeline from 2020 that are now being resolved. The presentation is available here.

For details of how to subscribe to the full report, contact Nicole Lux - nicole.lux@city.ac.uk

Commissioned Projects

We highlight projects which members of the Centre have been commissioned to produce.

New Hotel Lending Report

The Real Estate Research Centre recently published its report on Lending to the UK Hotel sector. This report was undertaken jointly with WiH and Berkeley Capital. This is a landmark report which is the first to examine in detail the key lending measures and indicators used by lenders to evaluate the credit quality of the sector. The project is sponsored by CMS, Savills, Taylor Wessing, and Castleforge Partners

You can see an edited version of the report and webinar introducing it, along with details how to purchase the full report here

The Role of ESG Factors in Benchmarking Real Estate Investment Performance – Alex Moss

The Role of ESG Factors in Benchmarking Real Estate Investment Performance – Alex Moss

The consortium comprises Professor Graeme Newell of Western Sydney University Anupam Nanda, Professor of Urban Economics and Real Estate, Henley Business School, University of Reading, and Alex Moss, Director, Real Estate Research Centre, Bayes Business School.

Download the Role of ESG Factors summary report.

CRE loan index - Nicole Lux

Nicole has obtained funding from a City University Enterprise Grant to pilot a UK lending database study with the aim to create a mortgage performance index. The index will allow to demonstrate the “asset class” performance of CRE lending in general return, risk analysis.

Lenders will be able to benchmark portfolio risk and credit quality and or lending styles against the overall market or matched peer-groups. The study works with key UK lenders and the Bank of England.

Download a summary of the Lending Survey 2019*

Research Papers

Part of the role of the Research Centre is to promote papers and work presented by members at academic conferences worldwide. Here we highlight the papers which have been published or presented recently.

Academic Papers

Read Alex Moss’s paper Is Financial regulation Good or Bad for Real Estate Companies? An Event Study. Published in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Read Stephen Lee’s paper Time-Varying Integration of REITs with Stocks: A Kalman Filter Approach, J. Published in the Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management.

The Performance of REITs in Advancing and Declining Markets Revisited

Author: Stephen Lee

The purpose of this paper is to examine the risk-adjusted performance of Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (EREITs) and Mortgage REITs (MREITs) in advancing (bull) and declining (bear) markets. Although advancing and declining markets were evaluated ex-post, the finding that the risk-adjusted performance of EREITs and MREITs perform differently in different phases of the market is of significant importance for the decision-making of portfolio management.

The joint dynamics of European office yields

Author: Sotiris Tsolacos, Yi Wu and Samuel Duah

We examine office yield behaviour in key European cities which account for the bulk of investment transactions in Europe. We found that government bond yield and economic sentiment highly significant on office yield. But European prime office yields not as sensitive to interest rates and GDP growth. Furthermore, we found that the low sensitivity to rent growth which is consistent with existing studies. The PMG results show that the government bond yields will only have a measured effect on prime offices even in the long-run.

The role of emotion in a housing purchase: An empirical analysis of the anatomy of satisfaction from off-plan apartment purchases in France

Author: Mark Andrew and Fabrice Larceneux

This paper examines empirically the role of an emotion of owning a new build apartment, derived from its representation through mental imaging (‘visualization’) from marketing techniques, in influencing off-plan purchases in France, and how its effect on satisfaction evaluations of the apartment purchased affects buyer ratings of developer performance. Through structural equation modelling we show that psychological measures of perceptions influence buying decisions via satisfaction of the apartment purchased. Our analysis also sheds light on how buyer satisfaction could potentially augment the reputation of a developer to achieve off-plan sales targets.

The City of London by the Thames

Our events

Take a look at our upcoming Real Estate events inlcuding a funding gap webinar with Nicole Lux and a webinar from Alex Moss on ESG Benchmarking.

The City of London by the Thames

Our resources

Explore our resource library, find our research papers, recent articles and webinars